House District 16
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by D (Robert F. Matzie)
Forecast
98%
chance Robert F Matzie (D) wins
- Democrat
- Robert F Matzie
- Republican
- John C Costanza
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+16.3 (90% range D+3.8 to D+28.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 1.7%
- Tipping-point chance
- 3.6% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +1.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+7.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +4.4 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +3.6 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -1.5 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+17.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.8 |
| Final expected margin | D+16.4 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+7.5 | R+1.8 | -5.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+17.3 | D+15.0 | +2.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+6.9 | D+5.0 | +1.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+3.7 | D+1.1 | -4.8 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+4.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +10.0, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Robert F. Matzie (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $229,552 · R $1,270
- Target lists
- DLCC, other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Robert F. Matzie | Michael J Perich | D+4.6 |
| 2022 | Robert F Matzie | Rico T Elmore | D+13.4 |
| 2020 | Robert F Matzie | Rico T. Elmore | D+12.4 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Likely D (very likely d) | 96% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.8 points.