House District 113
Northeast PA · currently held by D (Kyle Donahue)
Forecast
100%
chance Kyle T Donahue (D) wins
- Democrat
- Kyle T Donahue
- Republican
- Lucas O'brien
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+20.2 (90% range D+7.4 to D+32.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.7% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +11.1 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+17.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+20.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.4 |
| Final expected margin | D+20.2 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+6.5 | R+1.8 | +8.2 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+28.0 | D+15.0 | +13.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+19.9 | D+5.0 | +14.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+13.5 | D+1.1 | +12.3 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Kyle Donahue (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Kyle T. Donahue | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Kyle Timothy Donahue | Aaron Sepkowski | D+18.6 |
| 2020 | Marty Flynn | William John Kresge | D+36.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 99% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.4 points.