Senate District 6

Forecast

Democrat

Eileen T Hartnett Albillar

Republican

Frank Farry

Rating

Tilt D

Expected margin

D+2.4 (90% range R+8.1 to D+13.0)

Chance of flipping

64.7%

Tipping-point chance

14.1% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-3.1
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+3.6
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	-1.5
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	-0.6
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	+1.4
= Fundamentals margin	even
District polls (2, average D+2.9, weight 67%)	+1.9
External ratings prior (weight 33%)	+0.5
Final expected margin	D+2.4

District-level error SD 5.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 6.5 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+5.5	R+1.8	-3.8	0.45
2022 Governor	D+17.4	D+15.0	+2.3	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+3.2	D+5.0	-1.9	0.2
2020 President	R+0.2	D+1.1	-1.3	0.15

Last legislative result (2022): R+8.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean -6.1, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Frank A. Farry (R) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $408,636 · R $1,038,346

Target lists

DLCC, PA_Senate_Dems, other

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2022	Ann Marie Mitchell	Frank A. Farry	R+8.2