Senate District 24

Forecast

Democrat

Christopher David Thomas

Republican

Tracy E Pennycuick

Others

Michael Anthony Schonewolf Jr (Green)

Rating

Tilt D

Expected margin

D+2.3 (90% range R+9.1 to D+13.7)

Chance of flipping

63.3%

Tipping-point chance

13.8% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-1.1
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+5.5
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	-0.4
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	-0.2
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	-1.5
= Fundamentals margin	D+0.6
District polls (1, average D+2.0, weight 40%)	+0.6
External ratings prior (weight 33%)	+1.1
Final expected margin	D+2.3

District-level error SD 5.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.0 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+2.3	R+1.8	-0.5	0.45
2022 Governor	D+13.8	D+15.0	-1.2	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+4.3	D+5.0	-0.7	0.2
2020 President	D+0.1	D+1.1	-1.0	0.15

Last legislative result (2022): R+4.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean -1.9, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Tracy Pennycuick (R) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $507,412 · R $705,071

Target lists

DLCC, PA_Senate_Dems, other

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2022	Jill Dennin	Tracy E Pennycuick	R+4.0