Senate District 32
Central PA · currently held by R (Patrick J. Stefano)
Forecast
100%
chance Patrick J Stefano (R) wins
- Democrat
- Jacob H Cecil
- Republican
- Patrick J Stefano
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+39.0 (90% range R+51.7 to R+26.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -47.8 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+41.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -0.2 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+44.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +5.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+39.0 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+50.4 | R+1.8 | -48.6 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+31.1 | D+15.0 | -46.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+40.8 | D+5.0 | -45.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+47.9 | D+1.1 | -49.0 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2022): R+50.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of D+0.7 → lean -48.1, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Patrick J. Stefano (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Sydney C Vegoda Hovis | Patrick J. Stefano | R+50.2 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +5.1 points.