House District 13
Collar counties · currently held by R (John A. Lawrence)
Forecast
53%
chance John Adda Lawrence (R) wins
- Democrat
- Madelyn G Alvarino
- Republican
- John Adda Lawrence
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Expected margin
- R+0.6 (90% range R+13.3 to D+12.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 46.9%
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.6% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -5.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+1.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.1 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +1.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+0.5 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+0.6 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+4.8 | R+1.8 | -3.0 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+5.0 | D+15.0 | -10.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+2.5 | D+5.0 | -7.5 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+2.3 | D+1.1 | -3.5 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+16.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -5.0, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- John A. Lawrence (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $178,515 · R $13,409
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Cristian Luna-Valente | John Adda Lawrence | R+16.0 |
| 2022 | David Cunningham | John Adda Lawrence | R+18.7 |
| 2020 | Richard Raymond Ruggieri Iii | John Adda Lawrence | R+17.9 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Lean R (lean r) | 30% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.1 points.