House District 137
Lehigh Valley · currently held by R (Joe Emrick)
Forecast
84%
chance Jeffrey M Warren (D) wins
- Democrat
- Jeffrey M Warren
- Republican
- Joseph T Emrick
- Rating
- Likely D
- Expected margin
- D+7.7 (90% range R+5.1 to D+20.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 84.3%
- Tipping-point chance
- 5.5% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +2.5 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+9.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.6 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -0.2 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -1.5 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+7.3 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.4 |
| Final expected margin | D+7.7 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+1.0 | R+1.8 | +0.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+15.1 | D+15.0 | +0.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+5.3 | D+5.0 | +0.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+0.5 | D+1.1 | -0.6 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+3.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +7.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Joe Emrick (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $116,867 · R $145,064
- Target lists
- DLCC, other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Anna R Thomas | Joseph T. Emrick | R+3.3 |
| 2022 | Anna R Thomas | Joseph T. Emrick | R+2.3 |
| 2020 | Katelind A Brennan | Joseph T Emrick | R+26.6 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Likely D (likely d) | 87% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.4 points.