House District 112
Northeast PA · currently held by D (Kyle J. Mullins)
Forecast
99%
chance Kyle James Mullins (D) wins
- Democrat
- Kyle James Mullins
- Republican
- Joseph J Sabia Jr
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+17.2 (90% range D+4.5 to D+29.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 1.4%
- Tipping-point chance
- 3.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +6.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+13.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +2.1 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+17.3 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.1 |
| Final expected margin | D+17.2 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+1.1 | R+1.8 | +2.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+25.7 | D+15.0 | +10.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+16.7 | D+5.0 | +11.6 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+6.7 | D+1.1 | +5.6 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Kyle J. Mullins (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $200,750 · R $10,400
- Target lists
- other
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Kyle James Mullins | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Kyle J. Mullins | William Burke Torbeck | D+28.4 |
| 2020 | Kyle Mullins | Mary Alice Noldy | D+30.4 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 99% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.1 points.