Senate District 42
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by D (Wayne D. Fontana) · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance Wayne D Fontana (D) wins
- Democrat
- Wayne D Fontana
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+45.6 (90% range D+32.8 to D+58.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +36.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+42.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+45.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+45.7 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+34.0 | R+1.8 | +35.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+52.7 | D+15.0 | +37.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+43.4 | D+5.0 | +38.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+34.1 | D+1.1 | +33.0 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Wayne D. Fontana (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Wayne D. Fontana | nan | uncontested |