House District 173
Philadelphia · currently held by D (Pat Gallagher)
Forecast
100%
chance Patrick Gallagher (D) wins
- Democrat
- Patrick Gallagher
- Republican
- William J Griffin Jr
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+20.5 (90% range D+8.0 to D+33.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.7% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +9.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+15.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +2.3 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+21.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.5 |
| Final expected margin | D+20.5 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+5.1 | R+1.8 | +6.9 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+28.5 | D+15.0 | +13.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+14.5 | D+5.0 | +9.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+11.7 | D+1.1 | +10.6 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Pat Gallagher (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $215,180 · R $7,479
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Patrick L Gallagher | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Patrick Liam Gallagher | nan | uncontested |
| 2020 | Michael Driscoll | nan | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 99% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.5 points.