House District 114
Northeast PA · currently held by D (Bridget M. Kosierowski)
Forecast
99%
chance Bridget Malloy Kosierowski (D) wins
- Democrat
- Bridget Malloy Kosierowski
- Republican
- Logan Robert Lombardo
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+19.5 (90% range D+6.8 to D+32.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.6%
- Tipping-point chance
- 2.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +10.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+16.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+19.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.1 |
| Final expected margin | D+19.6 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+6.6 | R+1.8 | +8.4 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+26.9 | D+15.0 | +11.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+17.9 | D+5.0 | +12.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+11.7 | D+1.1 | +10.5 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Bridget M. Kosierowski (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Bridget Malloy Kosierowski | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Bridget Kosierowski | David A Burgerhoff | D+25.1 |
| 2020 | Bridget Kosierowski | James E May Iv | D+7.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 99% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.1 points.