House District 143

Forecast

Democrat

Timothy J Hayes

Republican

Shelby E Labs

Others

Christopher D Gambino (Forward Independent)

Rating

Tilt D

Expected margin

D+2.1 (90% range R+9.2 to D+13.5)

Chance of flipping

62.2%

Tipping-point chance

2.7% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-3.4
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+3.2
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+0.8
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	+0.5
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	-0.8
= Fundamentals margin	D+1.0
District polls (2, average D+3.4, weight 39%)	+0.9
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	+0.2
Final expected margin	D+2.2

District-level error SD 5.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.0 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+5.6	R+1.8	-3.8	0.45
2022 Governor	D+11.1	D+15.0	-3.9	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	even	D+5.0	-5.1	0.2
2020 President	R+2.9	D+1.1	-4.0	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): R+12.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -1.7, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Shelby Labs (R) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $95,716 · R $46,023

Target lists

DLCC

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Eleanor M Breslin	Shelby E. Labs	R+12.7
2022	Gwendolyn R Stoltz	Shelby E. Labs	R+6.4
2020	Wendy Ullman	Shelby E. Labs	R+3.1