House District 129
Central PA · currently held by D (Johanny Cepeda-Freytiz) · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance Johanny Cepeda-freytiz (D) wins
- Democrat
- Johanny Cepeda-freytiz
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+26.6 (90% range D+14.0 to D+39.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.6%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.3% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +16.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+23.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.9 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+26.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+26.6 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+13.0 | R+1.8 | +14.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+30.8 | D+15.0 | +15.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+20.7 | D+5.0 | +15.7 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+18.6 | D+1.1 | +17.5 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+12.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +18.1, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Johanny Cepeda-Freytiz (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Johanny Cepeda-Freytiz | Susan G Larkin | D+12.7 |
| 2022 | Johanny Cepeda-Freytiz | Barry J. Llewellyn | D+16.7 |
| 2020 | Kelly Mcdonough | James A. Cox Jr. | R+14.7 |