House District 30

Forecast

Democrat

Arvind Venkat

Republican

Libby Blackburn

Rating

Safe D

Expected margin

D+21.3 (90% range D+8.5 to D+33.9)

Chance of flipping

0.4%

Tipping-point chance

1.3% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	+10.5
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+17.1
+ Incumbency advantage	+2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+2.7
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	-0.8
= Fundamentals margin	D+21.9
No public district polls
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	-0.6
Final expected margin	D+21.3

District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+7.8	R+1.8	+9.6	0.45
2022 Governor	D+25.5	D+15.0	+10.4	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+10.4	D+5.0	+5.4	0.2
2020 President	D+5.8	D+1.1	+4.7	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): D+10.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +15.9, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Arvind Venkat (D) — running

Receipts

no matched PA DoS filings for both sides

Target lists

DLCC

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Arvind Venkat	Nathan J Wolfe	D+10.5
2022	Arvind Venkat	Cynthia R Kirk	D+10.7
2020	Melissa Geiger Shulman	Lori A Mizgorski	R+9.6