House District 116
Northeast PA · currently held by R (Dane Watro) · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance Dane Jeffrey Watro Jr. (R) wins
- Democrat
- — (no candidate)
- Republican
- Dane Jeffrey Watro Jr.
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+28.9 (90% range R+41.5 to R+16.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -31.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+25.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -1.1 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+29.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | R+29.0 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+34.9 | R+1.8 | -33.2 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+13.4 | D+15.0 | -28.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+24.1 | D+5.0 | -29.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+27.6 | D+1.1 | -28.7 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+44.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -33.9, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Dane Watro (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Deborah L Adoff | Dane Jeffery Watro Jr | R+44.9 |
| 2022 | Yesenia Rodriguez | Dane Jeffery Watro Jr | R+36.4 |
| 2020 | Todd A. Eachus | Tarah C. Toohil | R+44.6 |