House District 78
Central PA · currently held by R (Jesse Topper) · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance Jesse W Topper (R) wins
- Democrat
- — (no candidate)
- Republican
- Jesse W Topper
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+66.2 (90% range R+78.8 to R+53.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -70.1 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+63.5 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+66.3 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | R+66.3 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+69.9 | R+1.8 | -68.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+58.4 | D+15.0 | -73.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+65.9 | D+5.0 | -71.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+69.1 | D+1.1 | -70.2 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jesse Topper (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Jesse W Topper | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Jesse W Topper | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | Jesse W Topper | uncontested |