House District 147

Forecast

Democrat

Margaret Burke

Republican

Donna Marie Scheuren

Rating

Lean R

Expected margin

R+3.1 (90% range R+15.1 to D+8.8)

Chance of flipping

33.2%

Tipping-point chance

0.8% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-8.0
= Fundamentals before candidates	R+1.3
+ Incumbency advantage	-2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+0.9
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	-0.2
= Fundamentals margin	R+3.4
District polls (1, average R+1.0, weight 24%)	+0.6
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	-0.3
Final expected margin	R+3.1

District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.2 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+9.8	R+1.8	-8.0	0.45
2022 Governor	D+5.4	D+15.0	-9.6	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	R+4.5	D+5.0	-9.6	0.2
2020 President	R+7.4	D+1.1	-8.5	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): R+17.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -6.1, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Donna Scheuren (R) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $99,303 · R $139,306

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Albert Leach	Donna Marie Scheuren	R+17.1
2022	Alexandra Lynn Wisser	Donna Marie Scheuren	R+9.4
2020	Jill A Dennin	Tracy Elizabeth Pennycuick	R+12.9