House District 2
Northwest PA · currently held by D (Robert E. Merski) · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance Robert E Merski (D) wins
- Democrat
- Robert E Merski
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+32.4 (90% range D+19.8 to D+45.0)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +17.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+23.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +6.0 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+32.4 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+32.4 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+6.6 | R+1.8 | +8.3 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+30.6 | D+15.0 | +15.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+19.2 | D+5.0 | +14.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+8.8 | D+1.1 | +7.7 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+26.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +31.4, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Robert E. Merski (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Robert E. Merski | Matthew L Strupczewski | D+26.0 |
| 2022 | Robert E. Merski | Michael P Pace | D+28.3 |
| 2020 | Robert E Merski | nan | uncontested |