House District 106
Central PA · currently held by R (Thomas L. Mehaffie)
Forecast
93%
chance Thomas L Mehaffie (R) wins
- Democrat
- Anju Singh
- Republican
- Thomas L Mehaffie
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+11.1 (90% range R+23.6 to D+1.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 7.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -10.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+3.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -2.4 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -2.7 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+11.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.5 |
| Final expected margin | R+11.1 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+9.9 | R+1.8 | -8.2 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+8.8 | D+15.0 | -6.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+4.4 | D+5.0 | -9.5 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+8.5 | D+1.1 | -9.7 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+26.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -15.0, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Thomas L. Mehaffie (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $12,340 · R $621,917
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Anju Singh | Thomas L. Mehaffie Iii | R+26.0 |
| 2022 | nan | Thomas Mehaffie | uncontested |
| 2020 | Lindsay Drew | Thomas L Mehaffie Iii | R+7.2 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Likely R (very likely r) | 11% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.5 points.