House District 115
Northeast PA · currently held by D (Maureen E. Madden)
Forecast
100%
chance Maureen Madden (D) wins
- Democrat
- Maureen Madden
- Republican
- Richard W Szabo
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+20.9 (90% range D+8.4 to D+33.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.4%
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.3% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +9.9 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+16.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.2 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +1.3 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+21.8 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.9 |
| Final expected margin | D+20.9 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+7.3 | R+1.8 | +9.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+19.0 | D+15.0 | +4.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+14.5 | D+5.0 | +9.5 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+15.3 | D+1.1 | +14.1 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+6.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +12.3, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Maureen E. Madden (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $64,860 · R $10,590
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Maureen E Madden | Matthew Joseph Long | D+6.9 |
| 2022 | Maureen E Madden | Krista Rose Paolucci | D+12.6 |
| 2020 | Maureen Madden | Dulce Maria Ridder | D+27.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 99% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.9 points.