House District 176
Northeast PA · currently held by R (Jack Rader)
Forecast
94%
chance Jack B Rader Jr (R) wins
- Democrat
- Thomas Kucer
- Republican
- Jack B Rader Jr
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+11.9 (90% range R+24.5 to D+0.8)
- Chance of flipping
- 5.9%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -16.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+9.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.6 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +0.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+11.4 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.4 |
| Final expected margin | R+11.9 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+18.3 | R+1.8 | -16.6 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+5.7 | D+15.0 | -20.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+11.0 | D+5.0 | -16.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+12.4 | D+1.1 | -13.5 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+26.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -15.0, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jack Rader (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $49,651 · R $28,690
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Hope E Christman | Jack B Rader Jr | R+26.0 |
| 2022 | Hope Christman | Jack B Rader Jr | R+21.7 |
| 2020 | Claudette Williams | Jack B Rader Jr | R+10.3 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 4% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.4 points.