House District 97
Central PA · currently held by R (Steven C. Mentzer)
Forecast
92%
chance Steven Curtis Mentzer (R) wins
- Democrat
- Jessica Lee Branas
- Republican
- Steven Curtis Mentzer
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+11.0 (90% range R+23.5 to D+1.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 7.6%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -15.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+8.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.4 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -0.5 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+10.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.3 |
| Final expected margin | R+10.9 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+15.7 | R+1.8 | -13.9 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+1.9 | D+15.0 | -16.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+15.9 | D+5.0 | -20.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+17.4 | D+1.1 | -18.5 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+23.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -12.6, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Steven C. Mentzer (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $29,356 · R $56,100
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Robert James Rudy | Steven Curtis Mentzer | R+23.6 |
| 2022 | nan | Steven Curtis Mentzer | uncontested |
| 2020 | Dana Gulick | Steven Curtis Mentzer | R+13.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 6% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.3 points.