House District 10
Philadelphia · currently held by D (Amen Brown) · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance Amen Brown (D) wins
- Democrat
- Amen Brown
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+93.0 (90% range D+80.3 to D+105.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +83.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+90.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+93.0 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+93.0 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+83.5 | R+1.8 | +85.3 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+91.8 | D+15.0 | +76.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+88.8 | D+5.0 | +83.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+88.5 | D+1.1 | +87.4 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Amen Brown (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Amen R. Brown | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Amen Brown | nan | uncontested |
| 2020 | Kolbe Cole | Aaron Joseph Bernstine | R+19.9 |