House District 162
Collar counties · currently held by D (David M. Delloso)
Forecast
100%
chance David M Delloso (D) wins
- Democrat
- David M Delloso
- Republican
- Michael E Murphy
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+25.9 (90% range D+13.3 to D+38.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.3% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +15.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+22.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.6 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+26.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.7 |
| Final expected margin | D+25.9 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+11.1 | R+1.8 | +12.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+29.6 | D+15.0 | +14.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+22.3 | D+5.0 | +17.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+14.7 | D+1.1 | +13.6 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+13.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +18.8, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- David M. Delloso (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | David M Delloso | Gabriella M. Mendez | D+13.4 |
| 2022 | David M Delloso | Michelle Stock Mattus | D+17.5 |
| 2020 | David M Delloso | Peter Thomas Gaglio Jr | D+8.6 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.7 points.