House District 120
Northeast PA · currently held by R (Brenda M. Pugh)
Forecast
61%
chance Brenda M Pugh (R) wins
- Democrat
- Fern Leard
- Republican
- Brenda M Pugh
- Rating
- Tilt R
- Expected margin
- R+2.1 (90% range R+14.7 to D+10.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 39.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.3% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -7.5 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+0.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.6 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+2.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+2.1 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+11.8 | R+1.8 | -10.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+8.2 | D+15.0 | -6.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+2.8 | D+5.0 | -7.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+8.3 | D+1.1 | -9.4 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+15.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -4.3, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Brenda M. Pugh (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Fern Leard | Brenda M Pugh | R+15.3 |
| 2022 | Fern Leard | Aaron Kaufer | R+32.1 |
| 2020 | Joanna Bryn Smith | Aaron D. Kaufer | R+26.2 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Lean R (lean r) | 38% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.1 points.