House District 105
Central PA · currently held by D (Justin C. Fleming) · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance Justin Curtis Fleming (D) wins
- Democrat
- Justin Curtis Fleming
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+34.1 (90% range D+21.3 to D+46.8)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +24.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+31.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+34.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+34.1 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+23.3 | R+1.8 | +25.0 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+39.9 | D+15.0 | +24.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+28.1 | D+5.0 | +23.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+26.7 | D+1.1 | +25.6 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Justin C. Fleming (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Justin Curtis Fleming | nan | uncontested |
| 2022 | Justin C Fleming | Therese Lemelle Kenley | D+27.1 |
| 2020 | Brittney L Rodas | Andrew Lewis | R+3.6 |