House District 7
Northwest PA · currently held by R (Parke Wentling)
Forecast
94%
chance Parke H Wentling (R) wins
- Democrat
- Christopher Anthony-michael Ford
- Republican
- Parke H Wentling
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+12.2 (90% range R+24.8 to D+0.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 5.6%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -15.8 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+9.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+11.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.2 |
| Final expected margin | R+12.2 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+17.7 | R+1.8 | -16.0 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+4.4 | D+15.0 | -19.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+8.3 | D+5.0 | -13.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+12.4 | D+1.1 | -13.5 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Parke Wentling (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Parke H Wentling | uncontested |
| 2022 | Timothy M Mcgonigle | Parke H Wentling | R+2.8 |
| 2020 | nan | nan | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 5% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.2 points.