House District 47
Central PA · currently held by R (Joseph D'Orsie)
Forecast
95%
chance Joseph Frank D'orsie (R) wins
- Democrat
- Edward Lee Ritter
- Republican
- Joseph Frank D'orsie
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+12.5 (90% range R+25.1 to D+0.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 5.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -17.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+10.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+12.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.3 |
| Final expected margin | R+12.5 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+20.4 | R+1.8 | -18.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+0.3 | D+15.0 | -15.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+14.8 | D+5.0 | -19.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+20.0 | D+1.1 | -21.1 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+25.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -14.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Joseph D'Orsie (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Edward Lee Ritter | Joseph Frank D'Orsie | R+25.7 |
| 2022 | nan | Joseph Frank D'Orsie | uncontested |
| 2020 | Donald Alfred Owens | Keith J. Gillespie | R+30.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 4% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.3 points.