House District 86
Central PA · currently held by R (Perry A. Stambaugh)
Forecast
100%
chance Perry A Stambaugh (R) wins
- Democrat
- Wendy Morgan
- Republican
- Perry A Stambaugh
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+40.8 (90% range R+53.6 to R+28.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -50.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+43.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+46.5 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +5.7 |
| Final expected margin | R+40.8 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+52.3 | R+1.8 | -50.6 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+32.4 | D+15.0 | -47.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+44.7 | D+5.0 | -49.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+53.2 | D+1.1 | -54.4 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Perry A. Stambaugh (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Perry A. Stambaugh | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Perry A. Stambaugh | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | Perry A Stambaugh | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +5.7 points.