House District 139
Northeast PA · currently held by R (Jeff Olsommer)
Forecast
100%
chance Jeffrey H Olsommer (R) wins
- Democrat
- Dominique N Azzollini
- Republican
- Jeffrey H Olsommer
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+22.8 (90% range R+35.4 to R+10.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -29.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+22.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -1.2 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+23.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+22.8 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+32.1 | R+1.8 | -30.3 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+21.6 | D+15.0 | -36.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+26.8 | D+5.0 | -31.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+28.0 | D+1.1 | -29.2 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+34.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -23.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jeff Olsommer (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $16,013 · R $93,755
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Robin Schooley Skibber | Jeffrey H Olsommer | R+34.8 |
| 2022 | Meghan Rosenfeld | Joseph W Adams | R+25.6 |
| 2020 | Marian S Keegan | Michael Peifer | R+36.9 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 1% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.1 points.