House District 109
Central PA · currently held by R (Robert Leadbeter)
Forecast
100%
chance Robert Medin Leadbeter II (R) wins
- Democrat
- Justin Hummel
- Republican
- Robert Medin Leadbeter II
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+21.2 (90% range R+33.9 to R+8.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.4%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -28.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+21.5 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.4 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+21.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.7 |
| Final expected margin | R+21.2 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+31.3 | R+1.8 | -29.6 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+15.8 | D+15.0 | -30.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+24.3 | D+5.0 | -29.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+31.2 | D+1.1 | -32.4 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+34.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -23.4, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Robert Leadbeter (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Nicholas S Mcgaw | Robert Medin Leadbeter Ii | R+34.4 |
| 2022 | Edward R Giannattasio | Robert Leadbeter | R+37.1 |
| 2020 | William T Monahan | David R. Millard | R+44.6 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 1% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.7 points.