House District 26

Forecast

Democrat

Paul Franklin Friel

Republican

Samantha Lynn Horosky

Rating

Safe D

Expected margin

D+25.9 (90% range D+13.4 to D+38.4)

Chance of flipping

0.1%

Tipping-point chance

0.4% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	+14.2
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+20.8
+ Incumbency advantage	+2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+3.0
= Fundamentals margin	D+26.6
No public district polls
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	-0.7
Final expected margin	D+25.8

District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+11.2	R+1.8	+12.9	0.45
2022 Governor	D+23.8	D+15.0	+8.7	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+16.4	D+5.0	+11.3	0.2
2020 President	D+13.3	D+1.1	+12.2	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): D+14.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +20.1, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Paul Friel (D) — running

Receipts

no matched PA DoS filings for both sides

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Paul Franklin Friel Jr	Shawn David Blickley	D+14.7
2022	Paul F Friel Jr	Timothy F. Hennessey	D+14.0
2020	Paul F Friel Jr	Timothy F. Hennessey	R+7.0