House District 48
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Timothy J. O'Neal)
Forecast
99%
chance Timothy Jon Oneal (R) wins
- Democrat
- Rebecca Mactaggart
- Republican
- Timothy Jon Oneal
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+18.7 (90% range R+31.4 to R+5.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.9%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -21.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+14.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -2.3 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+19.5 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +0.8 |
| Final expected margin | R+18.6 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+24.8 | R+1.8 | -23.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+2.6 | D+15.0 | -17.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+13.6 | D+5.0 | -18.6 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+21.4 | D+1.1 | -22.5 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Timothy J. O'Neal (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $11,648 · R $310,285
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Timothy Jon O'Neal | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Timothy Jon O'Neal | uncontested |
| 2020 | Harlan G. Shober Jr. | Timothy Jon O'Neal | R+16.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 2% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +0.8 points.