House District 12

Forecast

Democrat

Brandon Michael Dukes

Republican

Scott R Timko

Rating

Likely R

Expected margin

R+8.6 (90% range R+21.2 to D+4.2)

Chance of flipping

87.0%

Tipping-point chance

0.2% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	-18.1
= Fundamentals before candidates	R+11.4
+ Incumbency advantage	+2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	-2.3
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	+0.9
+ Target-list signal (pull toward even)	+1.5
= Fundamentals margin	R+8.5
No public district polls
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	-0.0
Final expected margin	R+8.5

District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+18.5	R+1.8	-16.8	0.45
2022 Governor	D+0.4	D+15.0	-14.6	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	R+15.7	D+5.0	-20.7	0.2
2020 President	R+20.1	D+1.1	-21.2	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): R+29.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -18.7, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Brandon Dukes (D) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $29,703 · R $8,655

Target lists

DLCC, other

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Robert L Vigue	Stephenie G. A. Scialabba	R+29.7
2022	Robert Vigue	Stephenie G A Scialabba	R+24.5
2020	Daniel B Smith Jr	Daryl D Metcalfe	R+23.3