House District 65
Northwest PA · currently held by R (Kathy L. Rapp)
Forecast
100%
chance Kathy L Rapp (R) wins
- Democrat
- Destiny Kay Patricia Howard
- Republican
- Kathy L Rapp
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+30.7 (90% range R+43.3 to R+18.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -38.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+31.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+32.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +2.3 |
| Final expected margin | R+30.6 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+42.3 | R+1.8 | -40.5 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+24.6 | D+15.0 | -39.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+32.8 | D+5.0 | -37.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+41.6 | D+1.1 | -42.8 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+45.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -34.9, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Kathy L. Rapp (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Erin G Willman | Kathy L Rapp | R+45.9 |
| 2022 | nan | Kathy L Rapp | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | Kathy L. Rapp | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +2.3 points.