House District 68
Central PA · currently held by R (Clint Owlett)
Forecast
100%
chance Clinton D Owlett (R) wins
- Democrat
- Quentin Joseph Gee
- Republican
- Clinton D Owlett
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+43.9 (90% range R+56.7 to R+31.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -54.5 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+47.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+50.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +6.7 |
| Final expected margin | R+44.0 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+53.8 | R+1.8 | -52.0 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+45.3 | D+15.0 | -60.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+49.7 | D+5.0 | -54.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+52.7 | D+1.1 | -53.9 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Clint Owlett (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Clinton D Owlett | uncontested |
| 2022 | nan | Clinton D. Owlett | uncontested |
| 2020 | nan | Clinton D. Owlett | R+100.0 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +6.7 points.