House District 126
Central PA · currently held by D (Jacklyn Rusnock)
Forecast
100%
chance Jacklyn H Rusnock (D) wins
- Democrat
- Jacklyn H Rusnock
- Republican
- Miguel A Vasquez
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+22.7 (90% range D+10.1 to D+35.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +11.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+17.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.9 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+23.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.0 |
| Final expected margin | D+22.6 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+4.6 | R+1.8 | +6.3 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+24.8 | D+15.0 | +9.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+17.2 | D+5.0 | +12.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+11.4 | D+1.1 | +10.3 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+11.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +17.2, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jacklyn Rusnock (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Jacklyn H Rusnock | James D Oswald | D+11.8 |
| 2022 | Mark L Rozzi | James Daniel Oswald | D+28.0 |
| 2020 | Mark L Rozzi | James Daniel Oswald | D+34.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 99% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.0 points.