House District 154
Collar counties · currently held by D (Napoleon J. Nelson) · uncontested
Forecast
100%
chance Napoleon J Nelson (D) wins
- Democrat
- Napoleon J Nelson
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Others
- Stephanie Lynn Berardi (Progress for Pennsylvania)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+69.2 (90% range D+56.3 to D+82.0)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +59.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+66.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+69.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+69.2 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+60.0 | R+1.8 | +61.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+71.2 | D+15.0 | +56.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+63.2 | D+5.0 | +58.1 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+61.6 | D+1.1 | +60.5 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Napoleon J. Nelson (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Napoleon J Nelson | Thom Estilow | D+60.6 |
| 2022 | Napoleon J Nelson | Angelina Reymunda Banks | D+61.4 |
| 2020 | Napoleon J Nelson Sr | Kathleen Bowers | D+55.4 |