House District 92
Central PA · currently held by R (Marc S. Anderson)
Forecast
100%
chance Marc S Anderson (R) wins
- Democrat
- Krista Jean Anderson
- Republican
- Marc S Anderson
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+27.1 (90% range R+39.7 to R+14.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -32.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+25.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.2 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -0.9 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+28.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+27.1 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+34.6 | R+1.8 | -32.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+16.4 | D+15.0 | -31.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+29.4 | D+5.0 | -34.4 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+34.9 | D+1.1 | -36.0 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+40.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -29.9, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Marc S. Anderson (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $5,540 · R $19,865
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Daniel A Almoney | Marc S Anderson | R+40.9 |
| 2022 | Daniel Almoney | Dawn Keefer | R+40.7 |
| 2020 | Douglas F Ross | Dawn Keefer | R+44.0 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.1 points.