House District 98
Central PA · currently held by R (Tom Jones, not running) · open seat
Forecast
98%
chance Nicole Lin Woods (R) wins
- Democrat
- Hugh Stockton Hyder-darlington
- Republican
- Nicole Lin Woods
- Others
- Joshua L Deering (Independent)
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+15.8 (90% range R+28.7 to R+2.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 2.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -22.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+15.7 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+15.7 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+15.8 |
District-level error SD 6.7 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+24.4 | R+1.8 | -22.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+8.4 | D+15.0 | -23.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+22.0 | D+5.0 | -27.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+25.6 | D+1.1 | -26.8 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+28.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -17.8, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Tom Jones (R)
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Lynn W Mccleary | Thomas M Jones | R+28.8 |
| 2022 | Mark Joseph Temons Ii | Thomas M Jones | R+27.6 |
| 2020 | William Nelson Troutman Jr | David S. Hickernell | R+33.3 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 2% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.1 points.