House District 42
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by D (Jen Mazzocco) · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance Jennifer L Mazzocco (D) wins
- Democrat
- Jennifer L Mazzocco
- Republican
- — (no candidate)
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+45.4 (90% range D+32.8 to D+58.0)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +33.1 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+39.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.9 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+45.4 |
| No public district polls | |
| No external ratings for this seat | |
| Final expected margin | D+45.4 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+29.9 | R+1.8 | +31.6 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+46.8 | D+15.0 | +31.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+34.4 | D+5.0 | +29.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+28.7 | D+1.1 | +27.5 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+33.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +38.8, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jen Mazzocco (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Daniel Laurenzano Miller | Joseph D Leckenby | D+33.4 |
| 2022 | Daniel Laurenzano Miller | Patricia A Tylka | D+36.2 |
| 2020 | Daniel Miller | Kurt P Korinko Jr | D+37.0 |