House District 122
Northeast PA · currently held by R (Doyle Heffley)
Forecast
100%
chance Doyle Heffley (R) wins
- Democrat
- Christian Michael Bartulovich
- Republican
- Doyle Heffley
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+27.1 (90% range R+39.7 to R+14.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -32.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+25.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+28.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +1.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+27.1 |
District-level error SD 6.6 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.8 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+35.1 | R+1.8 | -33.3 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+16.4 | D+15.0 | -31.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+23.6 | D+5.0 | -28.6 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+32.4 | D+1.1 | -33.6 | 0.15 |
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Doyle Heffley (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | nan | Doyle Heffley | uncontested |
| 2022 | Richard F. Kost | Doyle Heffley | R+44.2 |
| 2020 | nan | Doyle Heffley | uncontested |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +1.1 points.