House District 81
Central PA · currently held by R (Rich Irvin)
Forecast
100%
chance Richard S Irvin (R) wins
- Democrat
- Caleb Joshua Donahue
- Republican
- Richard S Irvin
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+40.5 (90% range R+53.1 to R+28.1)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -52.1 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+45.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.2 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+46.1 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | +5.6 |
| Final expected margin | R+40.5 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+54.9 | R+1.8 | -53.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+40.6 | D+15.0 | -55.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+48.8 | D+5.0 | -53.8 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+52.9 | D+1.1 | -54.1 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+58.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -47.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Rich Irvin (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Sean C Steeg | Richard S. Irvin | R+58.7 |
| 2022 | Ian M Kidd | Richard S Irvin | R+50.3 |
| 2020 | Ian Michael Kidd | Richard S Irvin | R+37.5 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 0% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by +5.6 points.