House District 199
Central PA · currently held by R (Barbara Gleim)
Forecast
89%
chance Barbara Gleim (R) wins
- Democrat
- Tawanda Lynne Hunter Stallworth
- Republican
- Barbara Gleim
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+9.2 (90% range R+21.8 to D+3.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 11.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -14.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+7.5 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.7 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+8.6 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.5 |
| Final expected margin | R+9.2 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+15.6 | R+1.8 | -13.9 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | R+1.1 | D+15.0 | -16.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+11.7 | D+5.0 | -16.7 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+17.8 | D+1.1 | -19.0 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+21.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -10.8, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Barbara Gleim (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Richard E Christie Jr | Barbara Gleim | R+21.8 |
| 2022 | Robert Alan Howe | Barbara Gleim | R+22.9 |
| 2020 | Janelle Kayla Crossley | Barbara J Gleim | R+27.2 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 8% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.5 points.