House District 28
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by R (Jeremy Shaffer)
Forecast
60%
chance Jeremy K Shaffer (R) wins
- Democrat
- Jeremy Ferderber
- Republican
- Jeremy K Shaffer
- Rating
- Tilt R
- Expected margin
- R+1.9 (90% range R+14.6 to D+10.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 40.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.3% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -5.3 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+1.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.2 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | -1.5 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+1.8 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+1.9 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+7.6 | R+1.8 | -5.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+12.0 | D+15.0 | -3.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+3.4 | D+5.0 | -8.5 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+8.4 | D+1.1 | -9.6 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+14.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -3.0, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Jeremy Shaffer (R) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $14,720 · R $126,336
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | William A Petulla | Jeremy K Shaffer | R+14.0 |
| 2022 | Alison Duncan | Robert W Mercuri | R+12.0 |
| 2020 | Emily Skopov | Robert W Mercuri | R+7.4 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Tilt R (tilt r) | 39% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.1 points.