House District 95
Central PA · currently held by D (Carol Hill-Evans)
Forecast
100%
chance Carol D Hill-evans (D) wins
- Democrat
- Carol D Hill-evans
- Republican
- Jasmine Rivera
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+32.1 (90% range D+19.5 to D+44.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +25.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+32.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -1.0 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+34.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -2.8 |
| Final expected margin | D+32.1 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+24.1 | R+1.8 | +25.8 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+42.5 | D+15.0 | +27.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+32.2 | D+5.0 | +27.2 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+27.6 | D+1.1 | +26.5 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+18.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +23.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Carol Hill-Evans (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $9,585 · R $3,050
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Carol D Hill-Evans | Jasmine Rivera | D+18.3 |
| 2022 | Carol Hill-Evans | nan | uncontested |
| 2020 | Carol Hill-Evans | Kathryn Correll French | D+27.9 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -2.8 points.