House District 119
Northeast PA · currently held by R (Alec J. Ryncavage)
Forecast
92%
chance Alec Joseph Ryncavage (R) wins
- Democrat
- Lauren Elizabeth Mccurdy
- Republican
- Alec Joseph Ryncavage
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+10.9 (90% range R+23.5 to D+1.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 7.6%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | -13.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+6.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -0.6 |
| = Fundamentals margin | R+10.4 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -0.5 |
| Final expected margin | R+10.9 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+17.2 | R+1.8 | -15.4 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+5.6 | D+15.0 | -9.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+5.0 | D+5.0 | -10.0 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | R+13.5 | D+1.1 | -14.6 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): R+25.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean -14.8, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Alec J. Ryncavage (R) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Megan Kocher | Alec Joseph Ryncavage | R+25.9 |
| 2022 | Vito V Malacari | Alec Joseph Ryncavage | R+11.0 |
| 2020 | Gerald J Mullery | John W. Chura | D+5.1 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe R (solid r) | 5% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -0.5 points.