House District 156
Collar counties · currently held by D (Chris Pielli)
Forecast
100%
chance Christopher Pielli (D) wins
- Democrat
- Christopher Pielli
- Republican
- Kris R Vollrath
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+29.3 (90% range D+16.7 to D+41.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +20.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+27.4 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.0 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+31.2 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.8 |
| Final expected margin | D+29.3 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+18.9 | R+1.8 | +20.7 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+33.7 | D+15.0 | +18.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+22.7 | D+5.0 | +17.7 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+23.1 | D+1.1 | +21.9 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+17.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +22.7, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Chris Pielli (D) — running
- Receipts
- no matched PA DoS filings for both sides
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Christopher Pielli | Kris R Vollrath | D+17.3 |
| 2022 | Christopher Pielli | Heidi R. Vanderwaal | D+19.2 |
| 2020 | Dianne Herrin | Leonard J. Iacono | D+10.7 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 100% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.8 points.