House District 189

Forecast

Democrat

Tarah Probst

Republican

Danica L Hartenfels

Rating

Safe D

Expected margin

D+24.7 (90% range D+12.0 to D+37.4)

Chance of flipping

0.1%

Tipping-point chance

0.5% (chance this seat decides control)

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+6.6
+ District partisan lean	+12.4
= Fundamentals before candidates	D+19.0
+ Incumbency advantage	+2.8
+ Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk)	+4.0
+ Campaign finance (log receipts ratio)	+0.2
= Fundamentals margin	D+26.0
No public district polls
External ratings prior (weight 25%)	-1.3
Final expected margin	D+24.7

District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.

Partisan lean (current lines)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+8.1	R+1.8	+9.9	0.45
2022 Governor	D+18.4	D+15.0	+3.3	0.2
2022 U.S. Senate	D+14.0	D+5.0	+9.0	0.2
2020 President	D+14.6	D+1.1	+13.4	0.15

Last legislative result (2024): D+15.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +20.4, blended at 30%.

Candidates & money

Incumbent

Tarah Probst (D) — running

Receipts (cycle)

D $45,140 · R $35,126

Past results in this district

Year	Democrat	Republican	Margin
2024	Tarah Probst	Lisa M Vanwhy	D+15.0
2022	Tarah Probst	Stephen Walter Ertle	D+11.7
2020	Adam A Rodriguez	Rosemary Maula Brown	R+19.1