House District 33
Pittsburgh metro · currently held by D (Mandy Steele)
Forecast
100%
chance Mandy Julia Steele (D) wins
- Democrat
- Mandy Julia Steele
- Republican
- Michael F Hammill
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+22.9 (90% range D+10.2 to D+35.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.9% (chance this seat decides control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+6.6 |
| + District partisan lean | +10.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+16.9 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +2.8 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +3.4 |
| + Campaign finance (log receipts ratio) | +1.6 |
| + Target-list signal (pull toward even) | -0.8 |
| = Fundamentals margin | D+23.9 |
| No public district polls | |
| External ratings prior (weight 25%) | -1.1 |
| Final expected margin | D+22.9 |
District-level error SD 6.5 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.7 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (current lines)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+4.4 | R+1.8 | +6.1 | 0.45 |
| 2022 Governor | D+27.0 | D+15.0 | +12.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+13.8 | D+5.0 | +8.7 | 0.2 |
| 2020 President | D+4.1 | D+1.1 | +2.9 | 0.15 |
Last legislative result (2024): D+11.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+8.2 → lean +17.0, blended at 30%.
Candidates & money
- Incumbent
- Mandy Steele (D) — running
- Receipts (cycle)
- D $52,231 · R $4,999
- Target lists
- DLCC
Past results in this district
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Mandy Steele | Gary William Lotz | D+11.6 |
| 2022 | Mandy Steele | Theodore A. Tomson Ii | D+9.7 |
| 2020 | Francis J. Dermody | Carrie L. Delrosso | R+2.8 |
External ratings
| Source | Rating | Implied P(Dem) | Weight | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| state_navigate | Safe D (solid d) | 99% | 0.25 | 2026-10-15 |
Ratings are blended as a prior, not copied: they moved this seat's expected margin by -1.1 points.